Reasons why Ford shares could be considered a bargain right now

Price/book value is 0.99. Sometimes stocks with p/b near 3 are still considered a buy by value investors.

Fordward P/E is lower as 7

Car manufacturing stocks tend to be cyclical which makes the current ROIC of near 1.8% less scary.

Current ratio 1.20 is abit tight, but durable while low central rent sticks.

Currently the car industry reinvents itself towards durability

Henry Ford's grandson William Clay is chief of the board. He is a vegan, thus he likely genuinely is interested in durability concepts.

Only 7.61% of shares currently held by institutional holders, meaning that when institutions will start to buy ford stock again when all current relative uncertainty (due to trade war / company future projects succes) vanishes, the stock price could rise about 6.5 times. before 50% is held by institutions. If the next cycle is perfectly succesful, close to  80% of shares could be bought by institutions before running out of buyers (23% currently hold by insiders) meaning price could rise max about 10 / 11 times. 11 * 8.77 usd = close to 100 USD, based on the current enterprise value and book value(by then both will be much higher).

Looking at TA, near 7.5 is an extremely strong support line. If that breaks, the next big support is around 4.5 in the next 5 years, if that breaks, it could drop to 2 in 10 years. However these are very unlikely scenarios. More likely is the downward channel since 2014 will break to the upside early 2020 when Ford starts to publish more details about their next product lines, and within 5year the channel resistence at 18 could be tested. Since the current cycle is based on a complete reinvention of the car industry, this could easily result in a breakout of that resistance. Ford spends about 8 billion dollars on research and development yearly, which is increasing every year, (also is slightly more as GM does).




CEO / director income pay is only about 0,1% of company net income, no red flags there.
Insiders own a combined 3.3 mill shares, of which the director owns about 1 million, implicating Boards interests are aligned with shareholders.

Ford conveniently pays 6.64% dividend while shareholders await their next line of products.

There are possibly some unmentioned reasons not to buy Ford stocks right now, which i conveniently will not delve into ;).


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